The wall I am building wouldn’t keep Trump happy, but its cost has escalated by 50% in over a year which is about how long you will wait for tradespeople back home. Today’s image was my overjoyed builder sending me good news. Work has only just resumed on my retaining walls after New Zealand ran out of the special screws required. New Zealand has an inflation problem and the RBNZ is well behind the curve with supply chain bottlenecks and rising prices looking ever less “transitory.” As a kiwi homeowner getting some landscaping done, today’s image is a case in point. New Zealand’s Export and Import Prices both rose sharply by 4.60% and 3.80% QoQ for Q3. However, with China’s energy crunch easing, and Australian states reopening despite the fence going up at the international border, I expect the lucky country to stay lucky and get luckier into the end of the year and Q1 2022.
That disguised falls in both import and export volumes reflecting lower China demand and lower domestic demand due to lockdowns. Who said the BoJ doesn’t have a sense of humour? I’m not sure his concerns will be necessary though as Japan has shut itself off from the world, with only Japanese citizens now allowed to book flights home, assuming there are any flights now.ĭown in the lucky country, Retail Sales in October grew by a robust 4.90% while the Trade Balance held steady at AUD 11.22 billion. The Bank of Japan’s Suzuki was upbeat in his forecasts for Japan next year, even suggesting that the BoJ had to be alert to accumulating side-effects of monetary policy easing.
The next Bank of Korea meeting will be a live one, but a dusting of stagflation definitions in South Korea won’t be necessary today, with local markets likely to be fixated on noise that more government social restrictions are on the way.
Inflation accelerated though to 3.70% YoY for November, well above the 3.10% expected. In Asia today, South Korean GDP growth eased back to mid-2020 levels with QoQ Q3 climbing just 0.30%, led by a fall in services and domestic consumption. That leaves me to believe that Q1 will still be the quarter of the US dollar, although I acknowledge that the evolution of omicron may make the US dollar rally uneven and throw a few banana skins out there. Keeping European government and banking balance sheets afloat has turned into a multi-decade job, and with virus cases surging already over the continent, more movement restrictions, winter energy prices, and now omicron, I am expecting a euro-fudge disguised as no real action. The European Central Government Debt Monetizer Bank will have some tougher questions to answer. The BOE has led markets to water before on rate hikes and could do so again this month. The rhetoric from Powell & Co suggests they have not had an omicron blink this time and will announce a faster taper. Omicron aside, the upcoming FOMC, Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings will be interesting this morning. The five-year forward-forward inflation break evens continue to price in very little long0-term inflationary stress, which goes some way to explaining the curve flattening. For now, inflationary expectations in the US are being reflected in rising short-dated yields with long-dated yields falling. The inflationary noise continues to rise in volume, and I rather suspect that even without omicron, growth stocks (especially tech), would be enduring some rather wild price swings anyway. That comes after Eurozone Flash Inflation for November hit 4.90% on Tuesday, the highest since 1991. That follows UK CPI hitting 10-year highs in October, with Nationwide House Prices rising by 0.90% in November, far higher than expected.
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The process may have been helped along with another round of powerful US data releases, with ISM and Markit Manufacturing PMIs remaining robust, Construction Spending rising, upward revisions in US GDP forecasts and Federal Reserve Cleveland President Mester on the wires in full hawkish mode. The US dollar also staged an uneven rally, even as the US yield curve flattened once again. An incipient recovery in stock markets was quickly wiped out. Another day, another massive swing in direction driven by an omicron headline, this time its arrival in the United States aboard a vaccinated traveller from South Africa.